- Gold prices surged past $2700/oz fueled by expectations of global rate cuts and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
- The London Bullion Market Association’s bullish prediction of $2941/oz gold price in 12 months.
- Technically, gold is overbought, but the threat of an Israeli strike on Iran could limit downside risks.
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Gold prices advanced further overnight gaining acceptance above the $2700/oz as global rate cut bets intensified. The killing of Hamas Political Bureau leader and of the masterminds behind the October 7 attacks Yahya Sinwar had raised expectations of an escalation in the Middle East conflict, but the precious metal was already well on its way to fresh highs.
Currently, a mix of factors is fueling the gold rally. Despite the strengthening US dollar, gold prices continue to climb. Economic data from the UK and the ECB’s interest rate meeting have boosted expectations for rate cuts worldwide, enhancing gold’s attractiveness. Lower global interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding this non-yielding precious metal and could keep the rally moving forward.
A bullish take from the London Bullion Market Association who conducted a poll recently further adds credence to the idea that Gold prices may not be done just yet. The poll was to predict the price of Gold in 12 months time with the association seeing prices at $2941/oz.
The US election is nearing as well and uncertainty continues around the next US President. This could be another reason the appeal of safe haven continues to grow.
Technical Analysis Gold (XAU/USD)
From a technical analysis standpoint, Gold has been difficult to analyze with the lack of price action.
Gold bears may have been hoping for some headwinds from US data but that has not materialized as housing data disappointed. This has led to some USD weakness, which in theory should aid Gold prices. .
The concern for bulls lies in the fact that the RSI is now in overbought territory on the four-hour, daily and weekly charts. That coupled with the potential for profit taking before the end of the day leaves me slightly concerned. However, the threat of a retaliatory strike by Israel on Iran has strengthened as Israeli officials commented today a strike is imminent. This is something that could limit downside ahead of the weekend and into next week as well.
Immediate support rests at 2700 before the 2685 and 2673 handles come into focus.
Conversely, looking at the upside and immediate resistance rests at today’s high print around 2717 before 2725 and 2750 come into focus.
GOLD (XAU/USD) Four-Hour (H4) Chart, October 18, 2024
Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)
Support
Resistance
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